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JD Vance is the favorite for the 2028 GOP nomination Conventional wisdom says the 2028 Republican nomination for president is a lock: Vice President JD Vance will carry the MAGA torch into the GOP’s post-Trump era. Sen. Jim Banks (R-IN), a longtime advocate of Vance, recently said he “will be the nominee in 2028 — mark my words.” He added, “After President Trump, [Vance] is the next best thing.” Banks’s comments reflect a growing aura of inevitability surrounding Vance’s eventual nomination. But with 31 months to go before the Iowa caucuses, there is ample time for events to reshape this perception. Inherent disadvantages for vice presidents seeking their party’s nomination after a two-term presidency, shifting party fault lines, and unpredictable political storms on the horizon all complicate his path to the 2028 GOP nomination. Despite real strengths that cement his early position, crowning Vance as the heir to MAGA this far out is premature. Vance’s strengths From 30,000 feet, the fundamentals look good for a Vance 2028 nomination bid as of today. History shows that a winning GOP primary campaign should hope to garner at least 45% of the primary electorate. That number, earned by President Donald Trump in 2016, marks the lowest total won during a contested primary of the past 50 years. According to an Economist-YouGov survey conducted between May 9 and 12,
Monday, 06/23/2025, Video Clip |
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