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Don’t Count on China Bailing Out Iran The next steps will determine whether the worst-case scenarios become reality. States with major regional interests are bracing for the wider effects. Few stand to lose as much as China, which has been heavily involved in both Iran and the Persian Gulf states, but even facing the risk of losing billions of dollars in investment over the past decade, Beijing is still unlikely to come to Iran’s aid. The Trump administration’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities may alter the trajectory of the Middle East moving forward. The United States has still not fully committed to Israel’s war with Iran, but it seems that U.S. officials are willing to expand the conflict if Iran attempts to retaliate at scale across the region. Iran’s retaliation has so far been limited to strikes, with advance warning, on a U.S. base in Qatar. On Sunday, Iran’s parliament voted to close the Strait of Hormuz, potentially shuttering one of the world’s most critical energy transit points. Iranian-backed militias are also likely to target U.S. forces and infrastructure in Iraq, Syria, and potentially Yemen. The potential for further retaliation raises broader regional concerns—particularly for Chinese nationals and investments spread across the Middle East. China has evacuated thousands of its citizens from Israel and Iran, but its commitments go beyond the personal.
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