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Inflation set to worsen but still expect two interest rate cuts this year

By the close of this year, Fed officials envision inflation, as measured by its preferred gauge, to rise to 3% from April's 2.1%. The unemployment rate is also expected to increase to 4.5%, up from the current 4.2%. Meanwhile, growth projections have been lowered to a mere 1.4% for this year, a downturn from last year's 2.5%. Despite the darker economic projections, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues have put a pause on altering their benchmark interest rate due to the uncertainty surrounding the impact of tariffs and economic forecasts. Some Fed policymakers are notably worried that the tariffs might drive up costs, potentially triggering another wave of inflation not long after the severest spike in four decades. Economists largely agree that, in the absence of increased import taxes, the Fed would probably reduce its rate even further.

Yet, in what may come as a surprising turn, inflation has actually subsided this year to a mere 2.1% in April, right on target with the central bank's goal. Despite dips elsewhere, core inflation, which strips out the unpredictable food and energy sectors, is still somewhat high at 2.5%. During a press briefing following the Fed's publication of its recent policy outlook, Powell pointed out, "Increases in tariffs this year are likely to push up prices

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